Brian Daza

Ph.D. Candidate in Economics
University of Michigan
2026–27 Job Market Candidate

I focus on questions that sit within the union of macroeconomics, international trade, and development. I use both structural and empirical tools to study how globalization, domestic frictions, and government policy interact with economic growth and distribution.

Job Market Paper · CV

Job Market Paper

“Wealth Dynamics and Path Dependence”
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Abstract: This paper shows that trade integration and financial constraints can make specialization history-dependent even when sectors have the same long-run productivity potential. When their long-run potentials differ, the same constraints slow the adjustment of production towards comparative advantage. I study these mechanisms in a dynamic multisector general equilibrium model with heterogeneous entrepreneurs facing persistent productivity shocks. Financial frictions make firms’ ability to expand depend on their wealth, which connects sectoral production and growth to wealth distribution. In a closed economy, relative prices respond to scarcity: initially disadvantaged sectors become more profitable and catch up with initially favored sectors. In an open economy, international markets limit this price response; initially favored sectors accumulate more wealth and account for larger long-run shares of production. I conduct a quantitative analysis using data on Peruvian firms, households, national accounts, tariffs, and international trade. The quantitative results confirm that in an environment with empirically informed features, financial frictions slow sectoral reallocation towards comparative advantage, and greater trade exposure reinforces the degree to which initial accumulation advantages translate into subsequent specialization.

Other Current Research

“Government Spending Multipliers and Distribution of Commodity Booms in the Spatial Economy”
Latest Version (February, 2025) | RSIE Discussion Paper 690

Abstract
This paper studies the effects of local government spending and examines an empirical puzzle: while income, wages, and household expenditure rise following spending increases,local employment and firm value added do not. I exploit plausibly exogenous variation in public investment spending in Peru, where a commodity boom in the 2000s and ex ante defined natural resource revenue-sharing rules generated resources windfalls to local governments even to non-extractive provinces. Using these transfers as an instrument for public investment purchases, I estimate an open-economy relative local multiplier of 0.376. To explain the disconnect between rises in wages, expenditures, and income gains, and no response in local production, I propose a spatial transmission mechanism: government spending raises local demand, which is met through trade with other regions rather than only local production. I formalize this mechanism in a spatial trade model, where local fiscal shocks propagate through goods market linkages. The model’s equilibrium conditions map to a Spatial Auto-Regressive (SAR) specification, which I estimate to quantify indirect effects. The SAR results confirm that trade spillovers substantially amplify the aggregate effects of local spending. These findings imply that local multiplier estimates, which do not incorporate spatial propagation, likely understate the broader economic impact of fiscal policy.
“Teenage Labor, Trade, and Market Access”
Preliminary Results Available by Request

Abstract
This paper studies how, due to incomplete markets and limited labor-market access, child and teenage labor can remain persistent during periods of rapid aggregate growth The paper combines household survey data with district-level exposure to trade shocks in Peru, where GDP per capita grew steadily and poverty rates halved during the 2000s-2010s, but child and teenage labor rates remained high, especially in rural areas. Preliminary results suggest that teenage labor responds to trade shocks, but with heterogeneous effects across space depending on how shocks are transmitted to teenagers. In places with lower access to markets and high levels of home production, positive income shocks are associated with lower reductions or increases in the labor participation of teenagers, as their work opportunity cost increases. These results are analyzed through a model in which schooling, teenage labor, and occupational choice respond to wage growth, household production opportunities, and idiosyncratic risk.

Pre-Doctoral Research

“The effect of women’s entrepreneurship on corporate social responsibility” joint with Jorge Dávalos, Maria Angela Prialé, and Frances Ninahuanca
Management Research (2023)
“Effect of the increase of the educational supply on schooling and adolescent work in rural Peru”.
Revista de Investigación Educativa Peruana No 12. pp. 53-86. 2020 (Link to Original in Spanish)

Brian Daza, 2026 · Contact: bdaza@umich.edu

"But we'd need a musician first." 🌎 👒🦜