About

Hi! I’m Brian Daza, a Ph.D. candidate in Economics at the University of Michigan. I focus on questions that sit within the union of international trade, macroeconomics, and development economics. I use both structural and empirical tools to study how globalization, domestic frictions, and government policy interact with economic growth and distribution.

My research experience includes being a Research Assistant at MIT, the World Bank’s DIME, and the Research Center of Universidad del Pacífico. I also worked as a consultant for the Peruvian Government in the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Transports and Communication.

I hold a M.A.Sc in Data, Economics and Development Policy from MIT and a Bachelor of Economics from Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos.

Research

Working Papers

  • “Wealth Dynamics and the Persistence of Specialization”
    Preliminary and Frequently Updated Draft
    Abstract This paper shows how wealth dynamics under financial frictions can make sectoral specialization history-dependent, even when sectors have identical fundamentals. I develop a dynamic multisector general equilibrium model with heterogeneous entrepreneurs facing collateral constraints and persistent productivity shocks. Because borrowing capacity depends on wealth, its allocation across productivity types determines sectoral productivity and accumulation. Persistence depends on trade openness. In a closed economy, relative prices respond to scarcity: initially disadvantaged sectors become more profitable, which accelerates wealth accumulation among constrained productive firms and allows convergence. In a small open economy, sectoral prices are pinned down by exogenous world prices, so this corrective force is absent. Initial differences in wealth allocation therefore generate persistent differences in sectoral specialization. Trade integration changes selection into production and how allocation differences propagate through wealth accumulation. A preliminary quantitative application using firm-level, input-output, and trade data from Peru shows that wealth-productivity misalignment generates persistent effects in specialization and welfare.
  • “Government Spending Multipliers and Distribution of Commodity Booms in the Spatial Economy”
    Latest Version (February, 2025) | RSIE Discussion Paper 690
    Abstract This paper studies the effects of local government spending and examines an empirical puzzle: while income, wages, and household expenditure rise following spending increases,local employment and firm value added do not. I exploit plausibly exogenous variation in public investment spending in Peru, where a commodity boom in the 2000s and ex ante defined natural resource revenue-sharing rules generated resources windfalls to local governments even to non-extractive provinces. Using these transfers as an instrument for public investment purchases, I estimate an open-economy relative local multiplier of 0.376. To explain the disconnect between rises in wages, expenditures, and income gains, and no response in local production, I propose a spatial transmission mechanism: government spending raises local demand, which is met through trade with other regions rather than only local production. I formalize this mechanism in a spatial trade model, where local fiscal shocks propagate through goods market linkages. The model’s equilibrium conditions map to a Spatial Auto-Regressive (SAR) specification, which I estimate to quantify indirect effects. The SAR results confirm that trade spillovers substantially amplify the aggregate effects of local spending. These findings imply that local multiplier estimates, which do not incorporate spatial propagation, likely understate the broader economic impact of fiscal policy.

Selected Work in Progress

  • “Teenage Labor, Trade, and Market Access”
    Preliminary Results Available by Request
    Abstract This paper studies how, due to incomplete markets and limited labor-market access, child and teenage labor can remain persistent during periods of rapid aggregate growth The paper combines household survey data with district-level exposure to trade shocks in Peru, where GDP per capita grew steadily and poverty rates halved during the 2000s-2010s, but child and teenage labor rates remained high, especially in rural areas. Preliminary results suggest that teenage labor responds to trade shocks, but with heterogeneous effects across space depending on how shocks are transmitted to teenagers. In places with lower access to markets and high levels of home production, positive income shocks are associated with lower reductions or increases in the labor participation of teenagers, as their work opportunity cost increases. These results are analyzed through a model in which schooling, teenage labor, and occupational choice respond to wage growth, household production opportunities, and idiosyncratic risk.

Pre-Doctoral Work

 

Brian Daza, 2026 · Contact: bdaza@umich.edu

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