Hi! I’m Brian Daza, a Ph.D. candidate in Economics at the University
of Michigan. I focus on questions that sit within the union of
international trade, macroeconomics, and development economics. I use
both structural and empirical tools to study how globalization, domestic
frictions, and government policy interact with economic growth and
distribution.
My research experience includes being a Research Assistant at MIT,
the World Bank’s DIME, and the Research Center of Universidad del
Pacífico. I also worked as a consultant for the Peruvian Government in
the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Transports and
Communication.
I hold a M.A.Sc in Data, Economics and Development Policy from MIT
and a Bachelor of Economics from Universidad Nacional Mayor de San
Marcos.
Research
Working Papers
“Wealth Dynamics and the Persistence of
Specialization” Preliminary and
Frequently Updated DraftAbstract
This paper shows how wealth dynamics under financial frictions can make
sectoral specialization history-dependent, even when sectors have
identical fundamentals. I develop a dynamic multisector general
equilibrium model with heterogeneous entrepreneurs facing collateral
constraints and persistent productivity shocks. Because borrowing
capacity depends on wealth, its allocation across productivity types
determines sectoral productivity and accumulation. Persistence depends
on trade openness. In a closed economy, relative prices respond to
scarcity: initially disadvantaged sectors become more profitable, which
accelerates wealth accumulation among constrained productive firms and
allows convergence. In a small open economy, sectoral prices are pinned
down by exogenous world prices, so this corrective force is absent.
Initial differences in wealth allocation therefore generate persistent
differences in sectoral specialization. Trade integration changes
selection into production and how allocation differences propagate
through wealth accumulation. A preliminary quantitative application
using firm-level, input-output, and trade data from Peru shows that
wealth-productivity misalignment generates persistent effects in
specialization and welfare.
“Government Spending Multipliers and Distribution of
Commodity Booms in the Spatial Economy” Latest Version
(February, 2025) | RSIE
Discussion Paper 690Abstract
This paper studies the effects of local government spending and examines
an empirical puzzle: while income, wages, and household expenditure rise
following spending increases,local employment and firm value added do
not. I exploit plausibly exogenous variation in public investment
spending in Peru, where a commodity boom in the 2000s and ex ante
defined natural resource revenue-sharing rules generated resources
windfalls to local governments even to non-extractive provinces. Using
these transfers as an instrument for public investment purchases, I
estimate an open-economy relative local multiplier of 0.376. To explain
the disconnect between rises in wages, expenditures, and income gains,
and no response in local production, I propose a spatial transmission
mechanism: government spending raises local demand, which is met through
trade with other regions rather than only local production. I formalize
this mechanism in a spatial trade model, where local fiscal shocks
propagate through goods market linkages. The model’s equilibrium
conditions map to a Spatial Auto-Regressive (SAR) specification, which I
estimate to quantify indirect effects. The SAR results confirm that
trade spillovers substantially amplify the aggregate effects of local
spending. These findings imply that local multiplier estimates, which do
not incorporate spatial propagation, likely understate the broader
economic impact of fiscal policy.
Selected Work in Progress
“Teenage Labor, Trade, and Market Access” Preliminary Results Available by
RequestAbstract
This paper studies how, due to incomplete markets and limited
labor-market access, child and teenage labor can remain persistent
during periods of rapid aggregate growth The paper combines household
survey data with district-level exposure to trade shocks in Peru, where
GDP per capita grew steadily and poverty rates halved during the
2000s-2010s, but child and teenage labor rates remained high, especially
in rural areas. Preliminary results suggest that teenage labor responds
to trade shocks, but with heterogeneous effects across space depending
on how shocks are transmitted to teenagers. In places with lower access
to markets and high levels of home production, positive income shocks
are associated with lower reductions or increases in the labor
participation of teenagers, as their work opportunity cost increases.
These results are analyzed through a model in which schooling, teenage
labor, and occupational choice respond to wage growth, household
production opportunities, and idiosyncratic risk.