Hi! I’m Brian Daza, a Ph.D. candidate in Economics at the University
of Michigan. I focus on questions that sit within the union of
international trade, macroeconomics, and development economics. I use
both structural and empirical tools to study how globalization, domestic
frictions, and government policy interact with economic growth and
distribution.
My research experience includes being a Research Assistant at MIT,
the World Bank’s DIME, and the Research Center of Universidad del
Pacífico. I also worked as a consultant for the Peruvian Government in
the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Transports and
Communication.
I hold a M.A.Sc in Data, Economics and Development Policy from MIT
and a Bachelor of Economics from Universidad Nacional Mayor de San
Marcos.
Research
Working Papers
“Government Spending Multipliers and Distribution of Commodity Booms
in the Spatial Economy” Latest Version
(February, 2025) | RSIE
Discussion Paper 690Abstract
This paper studies the effects of local government spending and examines
an empirical puzzle: while income, wages, and household expenditure rise
following spending increases,local employment and firm value added do
not. I exploit plausibly exogenous variation in public investment
spending in Peru, where a commodity boom in the 2000s and ex ante
defined natural resource revenue-sharing rules generated resources
windfalls to local governments even to non-extractive provinces. Using
these transfers as an instrument for public investment purchases, I
estimate an open-economy relative local multiplier of 0.376. To explain
the disconnect between rises in wages, expenditures, and income gains,
and no response in local production, I propose a spatial transmission
mechanism: government spending raises local demand, which is met through
trade with other regions rather than only local production. I formalize
this mechanism in a spatial trade model, where local fiscal shocks
propagate through goods market linkages. The model’s equilibrium
conditions map to a Spatial Auto-Regressive (SAR) specification, which I
estimate to quantify indirect effects. The SAR results confirm that
trade spillovers substantially amplify the aggregate effects of local
spending. These findings imply that local multiplier estimates, which do
not incorporate spatial propagation, likely understate the broader
economic impact of fiscal policy.
Selected Work in Progress
“Wealth Dynamics and the Persistence of Specialization” Working Paper Coming Soon - Draft
Available by RequestAbstract
This paper shows how financial frictions can make sectoral
specialization persistent, even when sectors have identical
fundamentals. I develop a dynamic multisector general equilibrium model
with heterogeneous entrepreneurs who face collateral constraints and
persistent productivity shocks. Because borrowing capacity depends on
wealth, the allocation of wealth across productive and unproductive
entrepreneurs determines effective sectoral productivity and future
accumulation. The key result is that the persistence of these
distortions depends on the price regime. In a closed economy, relative
prices respond to sectoral scarcity: initially disadvantaged sectors
become more profitable, which accelerates wealth accumulation among
constrained productive firms and promotes convergence. In a small open
economy, relative prices are fixed at world levels, so this corrective
force is absent. Initial differences in the wealth-productivity
distribution therefore generate persistent differences in sectoral size
and specialization, even with identical technologies and preferences.
Trade integration does not eliminate misallocation; it changes how
misallocation propagates through wealth accumulation. Firm- and
sector-level evidence from Peru is consistent with two implications of
the mechanism: persistent productivity dispersion within sectors and
gradual sectoral responses to external demand shocks.
“Teenage Labor, Trade, and Market Access” Draft Available by RequestAbstract
This paper studies why child and teenage labor can remain persistent
during periods of rapid aggregate growth. I focus on Peru, where GDP per
capita rose sharply and poverty fell substantially during the 2000s, but
child and teenage labor rates remained high, especially in rural areas.
The paper combines household survey data with district-level exposure to
trade shocks to study how macroeconomic shocks affect teenage labor
supply and schooling decisions. Preliminary results suggest that teenage
labor responds to trade shocks, but with heterogeneous effects across
space. Adult outcomes also respond through wages, income,
self-employment, and agricultural work, indicating that household
occupational structure shapes how shocks are transmitted to teenagers.
Motivated by the fact that many teenagers work in the same occupation or
industry as their parents, the paper develops two complementary
directions. The empirical component separates goods-market access from
labor-market access to distinguish exposure to shocks from the ability
to adjust through wage employment. The model-based component studies a
household problem in which schooling, teenage labor, and occupational
choice respond to wage growth, household production opportunities, and
idiosyncratic risk. The paper aims to clarify how incomplete markets and
limited labor-market access can weaken the link between aggregate growth
and reductions in child and teenage labor.